A risk analysis model was established to predict Chinese aviation passenger ticket price changes from 2012 to 2020 due to the EU aviation carbon trading policy. Then the authors analyzed the impacts to aviation passenger transport fee, income, profits and carbon dioxide emissions, and discussed the influence on air travel and the airline industry. The results show that 1) the emission reduction caused by European Union (EU) aviation carbon trading policy is limited; 2) aviation passenger prices, airline fee, and carbon emission reduction would increase, and insufficient quota, income reduction, profit loss would be aggravated gradually. There would be 200 million loss till 2020.